Preview : South Africa vs Ireland (11th June 2016)

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– Average score: South Africa 19.64 vs 12.59 Ireland  

All the pressure will be on the Springboks as Ireland kick off their three-Test tour of South Africa at Newlands on Saturday.

rsairle2016Ireland have never beaten the Boks on South African soil – in seven attempts – but there is no danger of new coach Allister Coetzee expecting an easy win in his first Test at the helm.

And for good reason. Ireland, although weakened by the absence of a few star players, are still the team that outsmarted and outplayed the touring Boks in Dublin the last time these teams clashed, in 2014.

In Kiwi head coach Joe Schmidt, Ireland have one of the craftiest operators in the world game. With massive expectation weighing on the home side to launch a new era in style, there is plenty of room to slip up.

Modern rugby works in four-year cycles and Saturday represents the start of what is potentially a pivotal period in South African rugby.

A long trophy drought, increasing political pressure to field a ‘transformed’ team, a player-drain crisis and an expectant public that is demanding a more entertaining brand of rugby from the national side all combine to make Coetzee’s era a crossroads for the direction the Springboks could take.

So far, so good for the ex-Stormers coach whose selections have largely been greeted with satisfaction. But Coetzee will be acutely aware of how quickly the knives will come out if things go badly this weekend.

On paper, the Springbok should have the firepower up front to lay the platform for what has the potential to be a very exciting attack featuring some fresh blood.

But it won’t come easily. In the likes of Iain Henderson in the second row, Ireland have the ability to compete not only physically but to disrupt the all-important Bok set piece. In Robbie Henshaw they have one of the most exciting runners in Europe and his shift from inside to outside centre should also give him more room to display his offloading skills.

Don’t expect anything flash from the home side early on. They will look to their locks and big ball carriers to set the tone physically before the relatively inexperienced backs are given room to roam.

Schmidt has already hinted that they may looks to turn the Boks around with kicks in behind the defence, in similar fashion to that win in 2014 and the All Blacks in the World Cup semi-final. It’s in these situations that the hosts cannot afford to make mistakes.

How the result is achieved will be far less important for Coetzee than the result itself. Victory must come at all costs and it is that pressure that Ireland will look to prey upon.

Overall Stats South Africa Overall Stats Ireland
rsa2016shirtxc ire2016shirtxc
Games Played 22 Games Played 22
*Games Won 16 *Games Won 5
*Games Lost 5 *Games Lost 16
Games Drawn 1 Games Drawn 1
*Longest.Winning.Streak 8 *Longest.Winning.Streak 3
*Longest Losing Streak 3 *Longest Losing Streak 8
*Largest Points For 38 *Largest Points For 32
*Largest Points Against 32 *Largest Points Against 38
*Largest.Winning.Margin 38 *Largest.Winning.Margin 17
*Largest Losing Margin -17 *Largest Losing Margin -38
*Total Points For 432 *Total Points For 277
*Avg Points For 19.64 *Avg Points For 12.59
*Total Points Against 277 *Total Points Against 432
*Avg Points Against 12.59 *Avg Points Against 19.64
*Total Points Difference 155 *Total Points Difference -155
*Avg Points Difference 7.05 *Avg Points Difference -7.05
* = By South Africa * = By Ireland
Past  Ten Meetings
8-Nov-14 Ireland 29 15 South Africa Lansdowne Road Dublin, Ireland
10-Nov-12 Ireland 12 16 South Africa Lansdowne Road Dublin, Ireland
6-Nov-10 Ireland 21 23 South Africa Lansdowne Road Dublin, Ireland
28-Nov-09 Ireland 15 10 South Africa Croke Park Dublin, Ireland
11-Nov-06 Ireland 32 15 South Africa Lansdowne Road Dublin, Ireland
13-Nov-04 Ireland 17 12 South Africa Lansdowne Road Dublin, Ireland
19-Jun-04 South Africa 26 17 Ireland Newlands Cape Town, South Africa
12-Jun-04 South Africa 31 17 Ireland Vodacom Park Bloemfontein, South Africa
19-Nov-00 Ireland 18 28 South Africa Lansdowne Road Dublin, Ireland
28-Nov-98 Ireland 13 27 South Africa Lansdowne Road Dublin, Ireland

POSSIBLE RR World Rankings outcome on Result

RSA (on 86.77 points) at home -vs- IRE (on 79.55 points)

Possible Outcome Rating Point
Exchange
New RSA
Rating
New IRE
Rating
Will IRE
overtake RSA?
If RSA win by 1-15 points 0.000 86.77 79.55 No
If RSA win by more than 15 0.000 86.77 79.55 No
If result is a draw 1.000 85.77 80.55 No
If IRE win by 1-15 points 2.000 84.77 81.55 No
If IRE win by more than 15 3.000 83.77 82.55 No

The teams: 

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 20 Warren Whiteley, 21 Rudy Paige, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 Jesse Kriel.

Ireland: 15 Jared Payne, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Jordi Murphy, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Mike Ross, Rory Best (c), 1 Jack McGrath.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Finlay Bealham, 18 Tadgh Furlong, 19 Ultan Dillane, 20 Rhys Ruddock, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Craig Gilroy.

Date: Saturday, June 11
Venue: Newlands, Cape Town
Kick-off: 17:00 local (15:00 GMT)
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)
Assistant Referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Matthew Carley (England)


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