RWC 2015 Preview: England v Australia

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Australia have the chance to put England through hell with an early exit from
their own Rugby World Cup when the two sides meet at Twickenham.

POOL A – Match #26 – England v Australia

Overall Stats England		vs	Overall Stats Australia
Average Score : England 15.37 vs 21.09 Australia
Games Played	43		Games Played	43
*Games Won	18		*Games Won	24
*Games Lost	24		*Games Lost	18
Games Drawn	1		Games Drawn	1
*Longest.Winning.Streak	5		*Longest.Winning.Streak	4
*Longest Losing Streak	4		*Longest Losing Streak	5
*Largest Points For	35		*Largest Points For	76
*Largest Points Against	76		*Largest Points Against	35
*Largest.Winning.Margin	17		*Largest.Winning.Margin	76
*Largest Losing Margin	-76		*Largest Losing Margin	-17
*Total Points For	661		*Total Points For	907
*Avg Points For	15.37		*Avg Points For	21.09
*Total Points Against	907		*Total Points Against	661
*Avg Points Against	21.09		*Avg Points Against	15.37
*Total Points Difference	-246		*Total Points Difference	246
*Avg Points Difference	-5.72		*Avg Points Difference	5.72
* = By England			* = By Australia

Past Ten Meetings
29-Nov-14	England	26	17	Australia	London, England
2-Nov-13	England	20	13	Australia	London, England
17-Nov-12	England	14	20	Australia	London, England
13-Nov-10	England	35	18	Australia	London, England
19-Jun-10	Australia	20	21	England	Sydney, Australia
12-Jun-10	Australia	27	17	England	Perth, Australia
7-Nov-09	England	9	18	Australia	London, England
15-Nov-08	England	14	28	Australia	London, England
6-Oct-07	Australia	10	12	England	Marseille, France
17-Jun-06	Australia	43	18	England	Sydney, Australia

POSSIBLE RR World Rankings outcome on Result

ENG (on 82.34 points) at home -vs- AUS (on 86.44 points) in a RWC match

Possible Outcome	Rating Point Exchange	New ENG Rating	New AUS Rating	Will ENG overtake AUS?
If ENG win by 1-15 points	2.220	84.56	84.22	Yes
If ENG win by more than 15	3.330	85.67	83.11	Yes
If result is a draw	0.220	82.56	86.22	No
If AUS win by 1-15 points	1.780	80.56	88.22	No
If AUS win by more than 15	2.670	79.67	89.11	No

How sweet would that taste across the other side of the world – spoiling England’s big party by knocking them out and creating history in the process.

No host nation has ever failed to make the quarter-finals, and England are standing right on the edge of the cliff.

Two games in six days has meant that Michael Cheika had to chop and change his side but there’s no mistaking that Saturday’s XV is his strongest available.

Less than a year ago Australia were dominated up front by England’s scrum but since then under the tutelage of Mario Ledesma they are no longer a soft touch. In fact, their 94 percent scrum success rate in the Rugby Championship was some way ahead of South Africa and Argentina.

Australia had to act after that pummeling at Twickenham and Cheika’s move to bring in Ledesma now looks golden. Dis-spelling the myth that the Wallabies are a soft touch at scrum-time might take many years, but Ledesma’s passion and experience – found in his playing days slotted next to the likes of Rodrigo Roncero and Martin Scelzo – have had a clear effect.

Get the platform right and the damage the backs can cause for the Wallabies is limitless, even if there are some doubts. Will Genia’s rise from third-choice scrum-half to start throughout the year has gone under the radar.

His half-back partner on Saturday, Bernard Foley, was the outstanding player in Super Rugby in 2014, but he hasn’t hit those heights this year and especially with his goal-kicking which has gone from excellent to inconsistent. Dan Biggar has already proven how important every three points can be in tight Tests such as Saturday’s.

That said, Australia have to be respected for winning the Rugby Championship. Their belief to hang in when behind against South Africa and then to achieve a first Test win over New Zealand for four years shows how far Cheika has brought a side that felt lost in the latter days of Ewen McKenzie’s reign.

Australia have an array talents unafraid to take risks – including Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Matt Giteau – but importantly Cheika has installed both a focus and drive into this team who now don’t know when they’re beaten.

England won’t have lacked for determination this week, desperate to put last weekend’s crushing loss behind them.

Chris Robshaw’s role as England captain always means he will be in the firing line, but the level of over-the-top criticism chucked at him over the last week has been unreasonable.

If England score the try they needed, he’s hailed as a bold leader. If Owen Farrell misses the penalty from out wide, or even converts it to maybe set up a draw, then Robshaw lacks the guts of say Japan’s Michael Leitch to put it all on the line and go for the win. He can never please everybody – especially when the ramifications are so high.

England’s lineout lacked the bravery of Robshaw’s call, a gift to the front, and here they are a week on fighting to stay in a World Cup held on their own turf. Stuart Lancaster will have prepared the scenario, but that doesn’t make it any less of a nightmare.

He and his players are under unprecedented pressure – playing for their reputations, careers and under the pressure of an expectant nation. Frankly, it will make or break them.

The loss of Billy Vunipola is serious considering his performances since he was dropped last November and how he has played in 2015, although Ben Morgan rarely lets his country down. Joe Launchbury meanwhile starts only his second Test since England’s 2014 tour of New Zealand.

But the major return is Jonathan Joseph. Nothing was secret about England’s midfield master-plan against Wales and until Biggar and co recognized the space outside a muddling Brad Barritt’s 13 channel, they more or less held firm. Sam Burgess has been panned for his lack of positional intelligence and route-one approach – what a shock after only four Tests and less than a year in the sport – but he was hardly the architect of England’s downfall and some of the slurs thrown his way have been excessive.

Joseph though is England’s key, a distributor with enough pace and footwork to open up defences on his own. He gives England balance and the ability to get wider, faster. Had he been ruled out by the pectoral injury that saw him miss the game with Wales, then England’s chances would be even slimmer.

He returns just when England need him most – when they need everything to go their way. Three wins out of four against Australia at Twickenham since 2010 – including a 20-14 loss – point logically towards success.

But if England once again achieve supremacy on the scoreboard, they now know the price of failing to keep the door shut, and at what a cost.

Saturday was always going to be a blockbuster. Now it feels above and beyond that. We will never see another Rugby World Cup group game with as much at stake.

The teams:

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 Jonny May, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (c), 6 Tom Wood, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Joe Launchbury, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Tom Youngs, 1 Joe Marler
Replacements: 16 Rob Webber, 17 Mako Vunipola, 18 Kieran Brookes, 19 George Kruis, 20 Nick Easter, 21 Richard Wigglesworth, 22 George Ford, 23 Sam Burgess

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Dean Mumm, 20 Ben McCalman, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Matt Toomua, 23 Kurtley Beale