RWC 2015 Preview: Scotland v USA

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Shock results don’t come much bigger than Japan defeating South Africa. That has subsequently given Scotland an excellent chance to top Pool B.

POOL B – Match #18 – Scotland vs USA

Overall Stats Scotland		vs	Overall Stats USA
Average Score : Scotland 45.25 vs 12.50 USA
Games Played	4		Games Played	4
*Games Won	4		*Games Won	0
*Games Lost	0		*Games Lost	4
Games Drawn	0		Games Drawn	0
*Longest.Winning.Streak	4		*Longest.Winning.Streak	0
*Longest Losing Streak	0		*Longest Losing Streak	4
*Largest Points For	65		*Largest Points For	23
*Largest Points Against	23		*Largest Points Against	65
*Largest.Winning.Margin	47		*Largest.Winning.Margin	0
*Largest Losing Margin	0		*Largest Losing Margin	-47
*Total Points For	181		*Total Points For	50
*Avg Points For	45.25		*Avg Points For	12.5
*Total Points Against	50		*Total Points Against	181
*Avg Points Against	12.5		*Avg Points Against	45.25
*Total Points Difference	131		*Total Points Difference	-131
*Avg Points Difference	32.75		*Avg Points Difference	-32.75
* = By Scotland			* = By USA

Past Meetings
7-Jun-14	United States	6	24	Scotland	Houston, United States
20-Oct-03	Scotland	39	15	United States	Brisbane, Australia
22-Jun-02	United States	23	65	Scotland	San Francisco, United States
4-Nov-00	Scotland	53	6	United States	Edinburgh, Scotland

POSSIBLE RR World Rankings outcome on Result

SCO (on 77.69 points) at a Neutral venue -vs- USA (on 67.77 points) in a RWC match

Possible Outcome	Rating Point Exchange	New SCO Rating	New USA Rating	Will USA overtake SCO?
If SCO win by 1-15 points	0.016	77.71	67.75	No
If SCO win by more than 15	0.024	77.71	67.75	No
If result is a draw	1.984	75.71	69.75	No
If USA win by 1-15 points	3.984	73.71	71.75	No
If USA win by more than 15	5.976	71.71	73.75	Yes

But write off Samoa at your peril as they could apply pressure on the Scots with victory over the Boks on Saturday. That would all but end the twice winners’ hopes in a pool that was somewhat glossed over as being tough to escape. No one though thought Japan would add such drama to it.Many have said that had Japan enjoyed a week’s rest before facing Scotland the result – the margin of the score at least – might have been very different. But World Cup schedule gripes are for another day as the focus for Vern Cotter will be to avoid any slip up en route to five points.

Fresh in their first match, the Scots weathered the early barrage from Japan and eventually pulled clear in the second-half, with their classy centres enjoying strong games while Greig Laidlaw was solid off the tee. Now with the cobwebs blown they must get themselves a bonus-point win ahead of taking on South Africa at St James’ Park and then finally Samoa at the same venue, with plenty of home support expected at the ground.

This Sunday they face a USA side disappointed with their opening showing. They struggled to get Samu Manoa involved while it took over half-an-hour for them to trouble the scorers. There will have been plenty to improve then as this time Scotland have fewer days rest in between matches.

Consistency in key positions has seen Cotter stick with Finn Russell in the number ten jersey, which is wise against one of USA’s real success stories of their past twelve months, fly-half AJ MacGinty. The 25-year-old has only played six Tests but already looks a high class number ten.

Manoa will of course be vital to USA’s hopes of causing an upset but Scotland are well equipped in the back-row to stifle the powerful number eight, with strong showings from John Hardie and David Denton last week sure to please Cotter. Josh Strauss gets his chance this week in Leeds.

On paper it should be two wins from two for Scotland then with the bonus-point possibly the only sticking point as they look to give themselves the perfect build-up to those crucial pool deciding games that follow in the north east of England. What a couple of weeks that promises to be.

Scotland back-row John Hardie has been ruled out of Sunday’s Rugby World Cup game against USA at Elland Road, with a reshuffle having been made.

Having produced inconclusive results to a precautionary HIA 2 (head injury assessment) after Wednesday’s win over Japan, the openside – who remains symptom free – was reassessed on Friday.

It was here that, 48 hours after the game (HIA 3), Hardie failed one component of the tested elements (Cogstate), and was subsequently considered unavailable for Sunday’s game. He will now continue with his graduated return-to-play protocol.

As a result, Ryan Wilson has been promoted from the bench into the starting back-row.

To accommodate Wilson’s inclusion and retain cover for the forwards, hooker Fraser Brown will now take the number 20 shirt as back-row replacement, with Ross Ford starting.

Kevin Bryce comes into the matchday squad to take the replacement hooker role vacated by Ford.

The teams:

Scotland (revised): 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Peter Horne, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Henry Pyrgos (c), 8 Josh Strauss, 7 Ryan Wilson, 6 Alasdair Strokosch, 5 Richie Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Jon Welsh, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Ryan Grant.
Replacements: 16 Kevin Bryce, 17 Alasdair Dickinson, 18 Willem Nel, 19 Tim Swinson, 20 Fraser Brown, 21 Greig Laidlaw, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Matt Scott.

USA: 15 Chris Wyles (c), 14 Takudzwa Ngwenya, 13 Seamus Kelly, 12 Thretton Palamo, 11 Blaine Scully, 10 AJ MacGinty, 9 Mike Petri, 8 Samu Manoa, 7 Andrew Durutalo, 6 Al McFarland, 5 Greg Peterson, 4 Hayden Smith, 3 Titi Lamositele, 2 Phil Thiel, 1 Eric Fry.
Replacements: 16 Zach Fenoglio, 17 Oli Kilifi, 18 Chris Baumann, 19 Cam Dolan, 20. John Quill, 21 Danny Barrett, 22 Shalom Suniula, 23 Folau Niua.