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RWC 2015 Preview : Ireland v Italy

rwc2015It seems remarkable to think that just two years ago Italy beat Ireland in Rome,
finishing ahead of their visitors in the Six Nations.

POOL D – Match #28 – Ireland v Italy
Overall Stats Ireland vs Overall Stats Italy
Average Score :   Ireland 32.17 vs 15.92 Italy
Games Played 24 Games Played 24
*Games Won 20 *Games Won 4
*Games Lost 4 *Games Lost 20
Games Drawn 0 Games Drawn 0
*Longest.Winning.Streak 17 *Longest.Winning.Streak 3
*Longest Losing Streak 3 *Longest Losing Streak 17
*Largest Points For 61 *Largest Points For 37
*Largest Points Against 37 *Largest Points Against 61
*Largest.Winning.Margin 55 *Largest.Winning.Margin 15
*Largest Losing Margin -15 *Largest Losing Margin -55
*Total Points For 772 *Total Points For 382
*Avg Points For 32.17 *Avg Points For 15.92
*Total Points Against 382 *Total Points Against 772
*Avg Points Against 15.92 *Avg Points Against 32.17
*Total Points Difference 390 *Total Points Difference -390
*Avg Points Difference 16.25 *Avg Points Difference -16.25
* = By Ireland * = By Italy
Past Ten Meetings
7-Feb-15 Italy 3 26 Ireland Rome, Italy
8-Mar-14 Ireland 46 7 Italy Dublin, Ireland
16-Mar-13 Italy 22 15 Ireland Rome, Italy
25-Feb-12 Ireland 42 10 Italy Dublin, Ireland
2-Oct-11 Ireland 36 6 Italy Dunedin, New Zealand
5-Feb-11 Italy 11 13 Ireland Rome, Italy
6-Feb-10 Ireland 29 11 Italy Dublin, Ireland
15-Feb-09 Italy 9 38 Ireland Rome, Italy
2-Feb-08 Ireland 16 11 Italy Dublin, Ireland
24-Aug-07 Ireland 23 20 Italy Dublin, Ireland

POSSIBLE RR World Rankings outcome on Result

IRE (on 84.39 points) at a Neutral venue -vs- ITA (on 71.30 points) in a RWC match

Possible Outcome Rating Point
Will ITA
overtake IRE?
If IRE win by 1-15 points 0.000 84.39 71.30 No
If IRE win by more than 15 0.000 84.39 71.30 No
If result is a draw 2.000 82.39 73.30 No
If ITA win by 1-15 points 4.000 80.39 75.30 No
If ITA win by more than 15 6.000 78.39 77.30 No

That marked the end of the Declan Kidney era with Joe Schmidt taking over for the subsequent November Tests, and the two teams have gone in opposite directions ever since.

With the two Italian domestic teams in disarray, Italy have gone backwards, and the case for opening up the Six Nations to the likes of Georgia and Romania is getting stronger.

Ireland, on the other hand, have won back-to-back Six Nations titles, and look as well-placed as any northern hemisphere side to challenge for the World Cup.

Sunday’s game at the Olympic Stadium should have been the first real challenge for Ireland, following clashes with Canada and a tired Romania to ease into the competition.

However, an injury-decimated Italian side should pose little problem either, and if Ireland pick up the win as expected, both they and France will have secured a spot in the quarter-finals.

Italy will still believe they can be a fly in the ointment, but even with the return of inspirational skipper Sergio Parisse, they look too limited to spring a surprise.

An aging pack is no longer a dominant force, even with some classy operators in Parisse and Joshua Furno, while in the backs they are relying far too much on a few players with potential rather than pedigree to carry them.

Against a well-structured Irish side, it’s difficult to see that succeeding, and once again Italy are set to miss out on the quarter-finals.

In fact it’s got to the stage where a Romanian win over Italy in their final game of the pool stages next week would appear more likely than an upset in this one.

The teams:

  • Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Paul O’Connell (c), 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Jack McGrath
    Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Nathan White, 19 Devin Toner, 20 Chris Henry, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Luke Fitzgerald
  • Italy: 15 Luke McLean, 14 Leonardo Sarto, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Giovanbattista Venditti, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Simone Favaro, 6 Francesco Minto, 5 Josh Furno, 4 Quintin Geldenhuys, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Andrea Manici, 1 Matias Aguero.
    Replacements: 16 Davide Giazzon, 17 Michele Rizzo, 18 Dario Chistolini, 19 Alessandro Zanni, 20 Mauro Bergamasco, 21 Guglielmo Palazzani, 22 Carlo Canna, 23 Tommaso Benvenuti.
  • Date: Sunday, October 4
  • Venue: Olympic Stadium, London
  • Kick-off: 16:45 local
  • Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
  • Assistant referees: Pascal Gauzère (France), Angus Gardner (Australia)
  • TMO: Graham Hughes (England)

  • Full Pool Previews – Click Individual Pool Below





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